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Should you be buying Justin Jefferson? And for what price?

December 30, 2025

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Alright, tonight we’re going to kick things off with a deep-dive analysis on Justin Jefferson.

Giddy up.

Shouting out some great content in the industry:

Should you be buying Justin Jefferson?

21-Day Sentiment Analysis:

We analyzed 51 insights over the last 3 weeks from our Dynasty Pulse Premium Player Feed to generate a sentiment score and trade recommendations for Justin Jefferson based on his short-term and long-term dynasty outlook.

Sentiment score = -6 (based on a scale of -10 to +10)

Over the last 21 days, Justin Jefferson’s dynasty signal is clearly negative: he’s playing full snaps but delivering fringe WR3/WR4 production amid chronic quarterback issues, earning multiple “bust of the year” labels and even waiver-wire talk. A small Week 16 bounce and strong target profile offer some hope, but the near-term production environment is ugly and confidence is shaken.

Contender trade signal: SELL
Rebuilder trade signal: BUY

  • Jefferson has been a historic 2025 bust, going from a mid–first-round pick (ADP ~5–6 overall) to WR39 on the season and being named the 2025 Fantasy Football Bust of the Year and one of the worst early-round picks, with just 76–947–2 despite 16 healthy games. (Dec 30)

  • Recent production has been genuinely lineup-crushing: multiple sources note six straight games under nine fantasy points, WR59/WR54-type stretches, and single-digit outputs in almost every game since Week 10, with some analysts recommending benching or even waiving him in typical leagues. (Dec 20, Dec 15, Dec 12)

  • The immediate environment is toxic for win-now teams: QB play from J.J. McCarthy/Max Brosmer is repeatedly blamed for Jefferson’s collapse, with poor chemistry, low catchable rate, and McCarthy’s bottom-tier efficiency creating a situation where experts actively suggest sitting him in playoff weeks despite elite talent. (Dec 30, Dec 18, Dec 11, Dec 10)

  • Despite the awful outputs, underlying usage and schedule keep long-term upside intact: he still commands around 29–31% target share, heavy air yards and end-zone looks, and faces/has faced a No. 1 WR playoff schedule (DAL/NYG/DET), leading multiple dynasty and strategy pieces to frame him as a strong buy-low for managers anticipating improved QB play in 2026. (Dec 19, Dec 18, Dec 10)

  • Several dynasty-focused analyses explicitly downgrade him from undisputed WR1 but still describe him as a generational, buy-low dynasty asset whose 2025 slump is almost entirely QB-driven, with optimism that Minnesota will either develop McCarthy or add real competition, making this an opportunistic window for rebuilding teams to acquire an elite long-term piece at a discount. (Dec 18, Dec 3)

Our take:

Justin Jefferson currently sits in our consensus rankings as 14 OVR and WR7.

That’s a 9-spot drop from where he was at the start of the season (5 OVR).

A 2026 Early 1st is currently ranked 42 OVR, so that means Jefferson should still command a 1st + other picks/assets.

This WR7 ranking feels spot on to me. I would take all 6 WR comfortably above him and would confidently take Jefferson over the next 5 directly below him.

What do you think?

How many 1sts would you trade to get Justin Jefferson?

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That’s all for tonight!

See ya pizza,

Joe

P.S. In case you missed it, catch up on our most recent newsletters and other helpful resources below: