Week 4 risers & fallers

Including J.K. Dobbins, D.J. Moore, and more.

October 01, 2025

Yooo!

How great is it that we have playoff baseball to get us through the long winter of Tues & Wed before TNF?

Really hope the Yankees can keep this series alive (Judge just gave them a 3-2 lead as I typed this sentence out). One loss and then facing an elimination game is chaos lol.

Enough small talk. Let’s get to this week’s risers and fallers.

Giddy up.

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We updated our consensus rankings today, as is tradition. Here are some notable risers and fallers:

📈 Risers:

+9 📈 Emeka Egbuka (27 OVR, WR10)

  • Emeka Egbuka’s dynasty stock is surging, with analysts expecting him to climb into the top 10 WRs and surpass names like Drake London and Nico Collins.

  • Recent blockbuster trades (e.g., Egbuka for Malik Nabers + a 2026 1st, or for Brian Thomas Jr. + multiple picks) show managers treating him like a budding elite WR.

  • Though some remain cautious about his athletic ceiling compared to peers, his situation in Tampa Bay looks perfect for future volume with Chris Godwin declining and Mike Evans nearing retirement.

  • Our take: I love me some Egbuka, but those Nabers+ and BTJ+ trades are out of hand. He’s our consensus WR10, and that feels right. 

+10 📈 Tyler Warren (39 OVR, TE3)

  • Tyler Warren had an 18-point week featuring 70 receiving yards and a rushing touchdown, showcasing his unique hybrid role.

  • He’s topped 70 yards in three of four games and is carving out Taysom Hill-style usage near the goal line.

  • Warren is now a legitimate top-4 tight end rest-of-season, and with more rushing scores in play, his upside is massive.

  • Our take: Crazy to think Warren and Loveland were right by each other in rookie drafts. The only thing that could derail this train is if the Colts struggle and revert to Anthony Richardson. 

+17 📈 J.K. Dobbins (110 OVR, RB30)

  • JK Dobbins is showing strong momentum, having scored a rushing touchdown in each of the first three games of the season before a productive Week 4 performance where he gained 101 yards on 16 carries against the Eagles on Monday Night Football.

  • Dobbins has established himself as the clear lead back in the red zone, receiving nine carries compared to RJ Harvey's three. While Harvey did get 14 carries in their recent 28-3 win, this was attributed to clock management in a blowout rather than a shift in the normal workload distribution.

  • The matchup looks favorable for Dobbins against Philadelphia's run defense, which ranks 23rd in NFL run stop rate. The article predicts Dobbins has a strong chance to find the end zone again, noting that running backs have been consistently scoring against the Eagles' defense despite their big-name players like Jalen Carter.

  • Our take: If you’re not a serious contender, Dobbins is an obvious sell. I’d be fine holding him as a contender, but this feels like peak value for him. 

📉 Fallers:

-9 📉 Kyler Murray (48 OVR, QB15)

  • Kyler Murray has struggled to reach his previous heights, having never passed for 4,000 yards in a season through his first 7 NFL seasons and failing to establish chemistry with Marvin Harrison Jr.

  • Murray has been unable to replicate his 2020 form when he finished as QB3, and is now viewed more as a high-end QB2 with low-end QB1 potential.

  • The article recommends trading Murray, particularly for rebuilding teams, suggesting his current value is equivalent to players like Jaxson Dart, TreVeyon Henderson, or Quinshon Judkins, all of whom are considered more valuable assets.

  • Our take: This insight feels spot on. He’s fine if you have reasonable expectations. But, rebuilders would be better off targeting younger players with more upside.

-12 📉 D.J. Moore (93 OVR, WR36)

  • D.J. Moore has averaged fewer than six targets per game across four weeks, scoring only 7.8 points in Week 4 and failing to deliver any boom games.

  • Rome Odunze has clearly taken over as the WR1 in Chicago, while Moore has been overshadowed by Luther Burden, Cole Kmet, and even Olamide Zaccheaus (who has more targets).

  • Analysts say he may be entering his ‘Calvin Ridley years’—needing the right landing spot soon or risk being fantasy irrelevant.

  • Despite his talent, Moore is now viewed as a clear faller and not a dynasty buy candidate.

  • Our take: I had to double-check that Olamide had more targets than him and was shocked to find that was actually true (he has 1 more). D.J. is kind of in no-man’s land for dynasty. Too good to drop. Too old to be optimistic about the future. Too much risk for dud games to feel comfortable starting him every week. I don’t want him as a contender or a rebuilder.

-24 📉 Josh Downs (124 OVR, WR48)

  • Josh Downs ran 71% of routes with a healthy 20% TPRR, but design favors Tyler Warren, and trust balls go to Pittman — snaps must climb for consistency.

  • Still a talented separator; currently a WR5 who could pop in the right matchups or if route participation jumps post-bye.

  • Our take: I really had high hopes for him this offseason. All of the underlying metrics look great. He just doesn’t get enough playing time. And that doesn’t seem like it’s going to change anytime soon, unfortunately. The addition of Warren and a healthier-looking Pittman also presents much stiffer competition compared to last year.

Note: If you don’t see “Last updated: 10/1/2025” on your rankings page, try clearing your cache or opening our rankings in incognito mode to get the latest rankings.

Yesterday’s poll results:

🥇 Best subscriber comment (QJ): “All 3 seem to be good bets right now, but Quentin Johnson is on the most consistent offense giving him more opportunities to rack up points.”

Our take: What a difference 4 games can make! Many people wrote him off last year, but QJ didn’t write back.

Today’s poll:

In your most important dynasty league, how would you describe your team?

(Vote to see live results)

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That’s all for today!

See ya pizza,

Joe

P.S. In case you missed it, catch up on our most recent newsletters below:

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