5 players trending down (week 9)

Featuring Keon Coleman, D.J. Moore, and more

October 30, 2025

Yooo!

I forgot to mention our weekly rankings in last night’s newsletter. They’re updated around 10am ET every day now. The thing I like most about these projections is that they clearly show the distinct tiers between players.

When we look at most rankings without projections, we assume the gaps are relatively even. But that’s not really the case.

For example, DK Metcalf and Olave are tied for WR18/19 this week according to our consensus projections. But they’re +1 point away from being ranked WR11 and -1 point from being ranked WR21.

If you look at the rankings without projections, we perceive the gap between WR11 to WR18 (7 spots) to be bigger than the gap between WR19 to WR21 (2 spots). In reality, the gap is equal — it’s only 1 point in each direction.

What does that all mean? It means this ~WR10-20 tier is really tight this week. And when you expand beyond this group, you start to see other tiers above and below.

TLDR - don’t make start/sit decisions based on rankings alone. Understand the projections and where the tiers fall as well.

Alright, now let’s get into some players trending down this week.

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WR - Keon Coleman (BUF)

  • Keon Coleman is considered to be sinking in dynasty value, having done 'really nothing' since a promising Week 1 performance to prove he can be a consistent weekly starter. His lack of production is particularly concerning given that he hasn't capitalized on opportunities created by the absence of Joshua Palmer and Dalton Kincaid.

  • Coleman's best use case is as an attractive young name to include as a throw-in piece in trades, targeting managers who still believe in his upside potential with Josh Allen. His connection to a high-quality quarterback like Allen provides some theoretical appeal despite his poor production.

  • The fact that Coleman has failed to produce meaningful fantasy results even when other pass-catchers have been unavailable is described as 'quite discouraging' by the analysts. This suggests his struggles may be more fundamental than simply a matter of opportunity or target competition.

  • Our take: I drafted Keon in a startup this year with the hopes of him making a year 2 leap. He has certainly had plenty of chances to step up, as the article above indicates. He’s right between a 2026 mid 2nd and a 2027 mid 2nd in our consensus rankings. I’d trade him at that price.

WR - Tee Higgins (CIN)

  • While most fantasy apps suggest the Bears are a good matchup for Higgins, this is described as a 'matchup lie' due to how Chicago's defense has improved recently and where they've been vulnerable.

  • The Bears' defensive struggles have been specific to certain positions, ranking 32nd against slot receivers and 28th against tight ends in terms of fantasy points allowed versus average. However, they rank first against outside wide receivers, which is exactly where Higgins lines up for nearly every play, making this a trap spot for the Cincinnati receiver.

  • Higgins' target share concerns compound the matchup issues, as he's maintained below a 17% target share regardless of which quarterback is in the game for Cincinnati.

  • Our take: We had Higgins in our trending up newsletter just last week. But a 2-target, 1-catch game is enough of a reason to question that stance. If his 44-yard TD catch is overthrown or dropped, we’re looking at a 2-target goose egg and would be in full panic mode. We have him ranked between a 2028 Early 1st and a 2027 Mid 1st. If you think you’ll be contending next year, that could be a solid value with Burrow back. For this year, I’m bracing myself for a lot of boom/bust outputs.

WR - D.J. Moore (CHI)

  • DJ Moore has been a significant disappointment in Year 2 of Caleb Williams' development and the arrival of head coach Ben Johnson, with his numbers declining across the board despite the offense improving by averaging about 65 yards and six points more than in 2024.

  • The primary reason for Moore's struggles is quite simple according to the article: Rome Odunze has taken a giant leap this season and assumed control of the WR1 position in the Chicago offense. Odunze is commanding 5.2 first-read targets per game compared to Moore's 2.5.

  • Moore's situation could deteriorate further if first-round pick Colston Loveland or second-round selection Luther Burden III take a second-half leap, as neither rookie is heavily involved in the offense yet.

  • Our take: I don’t see much upside for DJ moving forward unless Odunze were to get hurt. He sits between a 2028 late 1st and a 2026 early 2nd in our consensus rankings. And I’d gladly trade him for those picks.

QB - Dillon Gabriel (CLE)

  • Dillon Gabriel becomes a sell candidate as the Browns are on a bye in Week 9, which will lead to two weeks of Head Coach Kevin Stefanski fielding questions regarding Shedeur Sanders. This situation creates uncertainty around Gabriel's long-term role and makes it an opportune time to trade him before potential competition materializes.

  • While Gabriel has not been playing bad football outside of Sunday's game against New England, the Browns' win-loss record is not in his favor, and Cleveland will need to see what they have in Sanders ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft. The team's poor record creates pressure to evaluate other quarterback options, putting Gabriel's starting job at risk.

  • The article suggests that managers probably did not invest high draft capital on Gabriel, so now is the time to get a positive return on investment before his value potentially crashes.

  • Our take: We have Gabriel ranked around a 2026 or 2027 early 3rd. But I think you might be able to sell for a 2nd because of the QB premium you usually see in superflex. It’s at least worth a shot.

RB - Alvin Kamara (NOR)

  • Alvin Kamara has been a major disappointment this fantasy season, ranking as just the RB36 in points per game despite getting a long leash from fantasy managers. Kamara has not topped 12 carries or 35 rushing yards since Week 4, hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 1, and hasn't totaled 15+ fantasy points in a single game this entire season.

  • He now faces the Rams, who are the only team that hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back all season and are surrendering just 3.8 yards per carry to the position, while Kamara is averaging only 3.6 yards per carry himself.

  • The analysis suggests doing whatever possible to avoid Kamara in starting lineups given his poor matchup and season-long struggles.

  • Our take: Kamara sits between a 2027 and 2028 early 2nd in our rankings. As an owner in one league, I can tell you there isn’t much interest out there for him. If you’re not contending, I’d probably just take what I can get or package him with some other players to get a better return.

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🥇 Best subscriber comment (Late 1st): “Almost went with Gadsden but I think I can do more with the 26 1st. Even if it’s packaging it with something else to tier up.”

Our take: ^ This is a sharp take. Gadsden has mixed market interest right now. You either love him or are skeptical of the sample size. That shrinks your pool of prospective trade partners (not that you’d necessarily trade him). But everyone could always use another 1st round pick. So I’d probably take the pick and try to tier up as well, unless I really needed a TE.

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That’s all for today!

See ya pizza,

Joe

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