6 risers and fallers (week 10)

Featuring Brian Thomas Jr., Terry McLaurin, and more

November 05, 2025

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No preamble. We’re diving right into risers and fallers tonight.

Giddy up.

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*Make sure you open our rankings in incognito mode to get the latest data. You should see “Last updated: 11/5/2025”

📈 RISERS

+22 Sam Darnold (QB18, 57 OVR)

  • Sam Darnold has emerged as one of the most efficient quarterbacks this season with the Seattle Seahawks, ranking QB3 in several key metrics including EPA per Attempt (0.40), Pass Success Rate (56.5%), and Completion Percentage Over Expected (+10.8%).

  • Despite his impressive efficiency, Darnold remains a QB2 in dynasty formats due to Seattle's run-heavy offensive approach, which has resulted in him finishing outside QB1 range in 50% of his games this season.

  • His contract uncertainty adds complexity to his dynasty value, as it is non-guaranteed after this year, potentially leaving his long-term role with the Seahawks uncertain despite his current strong performance.

  • Our take: Darnold is a tricky player to value. He’s ranked just ahead of Goff (58 OVR) in our consensus rankings, but I feel like Goff’s role is way more secure. I wouldn’t blame you for buying Darnold, but his price is getting too high for me. I’d be in for a 2026 Late 1st, but that’s 34 spots off in value according to our rankings (91 OVR).

+32 Rico Dowdle (RB25, 106 OVR)

  • Rico Dowdle has been performing well enough that trading him could be challenging for fantasy owners, but experts suggest being open to potential high-value trades.

  • If Dowdle could be exchanged for players like Jordan Addison, Jaylen Waddle, or Chris Olave, experts recommend making the deal, believing his current performance pace is not sustainable.

  • The recommendation stems from a belief that while Dowdle may continue to play well, his current level of production is likely to regress over time.

  • Our take: We talked about Dowdle on Monday, but figured he was worth highlighting here again because I imagine he’s a popular trade candidate. He’s an obvious sell for rebuilders. So what’s the price for contenders? Well… it keeps going up. Our consensus rankings have him right between a 2028 Late 1st and a 2026 Early 2nd. I’d be happy to pay the Early 2nd price tag if I needed an RB, but not a 1st.

+16 Christian Watson (WR59, 163 OVR)

  • Watson's role in the Packers' offense is trending upward, with his route share increasing from 59.5% in Week 8 to 75% in Week 9, despite modest receiving stats of two receptions and 58 yards.

  • The article notes Watson will likely be even more crucial to the Packers' offense due to injuries to Tucker Kraft and Matthew Golden, suggesting potential increased opportunities in upcoming weeks.

  • While the analyst recommends avoiding Watson in the Flex position this week against Philadelphia, they highlight promising upcoming matchups against the Giants and Vikings, who have been vulnerable to perimeter wide receivers in recent weeks.

  • Our take: Watson is directly above Mark Andrews in our consensus rankings. As an Andrews owner, I’d make a deal for Watson in a heartbeat. That tells me Watson is probably still undervalued despite the bump up this week. I’d take a shot on him.

📉 FALLERS

-10 Brian Thomas Jr. (WR15, 43 OVR)

  • Thomas Jr. suffered an ankle injury in Week 9, with conflicting reports about its severity, which comes at a potentially challenging time with the Jaguars acquiring Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline.

  • In the same game, teammate Parker Washington emerged as Trevor Lawrence's preferred target, accumulating 90 receiving yards on a 27.3% target share, while Thomas Jr. managed just 55 yards on a 15.2% target share.

  • The addition of Meyers and Thomas Jr.'s potential ankle injury could complicate his fantasy value, especially with the prospect of facing Sauce Gardner (traded to the Colts) twice down the stretch.

  • Our take: I could stomach Travis Hunter taking some share from BTJ, but Parker Washington???? Come on. I drafted BTJ in a startup this year, and he has absolutely killed me. I paid too much for him. Nobody wants him. And he just got more competition in Jakobi. Yuck. I still can’t wrap my head around how bad he has been this year.

-34 Chuba Hubbard (RB32, 133 OVR)

  • Chuba Hubbard has been dramatically displaced in the Carolina Panthers' running back rotation. After being inactive in Weeks 5 and 6, Rico Dowdle emerged as the team's primary back, producing significant yardage and touchdowns.

  • In Week 9, Hubbard's role was severely diminished. He had only five carries for 17 yards, while Dowdle dominated with 25 carries, 130 yards, and two touchdowns. The article suggests Hubbard has gone from being the clear No. 1 running back to a backup.

  • The Panthers' coaching staff appears to have lost confidence in Hubbard, with Dowdle now functioning as the clear workhorse back. This shift makes Hubbard essentially a handcuff rather than a viable fantasy football option.

  • Our take: We talked about the guy who took his job already. Rico goes up. Chuba goes down. We have him right around a 2026 Mid 2nd in our rankings. At that price…

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-10 Terry McLaurin (WR36 , 107 OVR)

  • Terry McLaurin is facing a challenging season with multiple complications, including a quad injury that has already cost him five games and potential further missed time. The injury situation, combined with uncertainty around the Commanders' quarterback situation, significantly impacts his fantasy value.

  • At 31 years old and potentially without franchise quarterback Jayden Daniels for the remainder of the season, McLaurin's fantasy prospects look increasingly dim. The article suggests that trading him now might be the most prudent strategy for fantasy managers.

  • McLaurin is recommended as a trade candidate, with the article specifically suggesting potential trades for younger assets like Parker Washington or acquiring a 2026 2nd round pick to mitigate potential long-term value loss.

  • Our take: We have Terry right above a 2026 Early 2nd. With no Jayden and all the injuries Terry has been dealing with, I wouldn’t want that headache as a contender. I think he might keep falling.

*Make sure you open our rankings in incognito mode to get the latest data. You should see “Last updated: 11/5/2025”

That’s all for today!

See ya pizza,

Joe

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