6 risers and fallers (week 12)

Featuring Sam Darnold, J.J. McCarthy, and more.

November 19, 2025

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Last night, we led off the newsletter with a trade poll:

  • 6th place receives CMC, Goff, Goedert

  • 1st place receives Henry, Lamar, Jonnu

I was surprised to see it was a close one with 55.49% voting in favor of the 6th place side:

Best subscriber comments:

  • “Dynasty? Lamar is worth more then the rest combined.”

  • “I just don’t understand this trade for either team lol”

  • “I lean Lamar side because both CMC and Henry likely only have a couple years of elite production left. Lamar > Goff pretty comfortably in dynasty and the two TE's are mostly a wash for me. Goedert edges Smith but not enough to make up the gap Lamar has over Goff.”

Our take: I’m firmly in the camp of Lamar is worth more than those 3 assets combined. He’s the #3 overall-ranked player in our consensus. I get CMC is having a great year, but how many more does he have in him? 1? 2 maybe?

Want a trade reviewed? Reply to this email and we’ll run a poll for it.

Now, let’s get into this week’s risers and fallers.

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📈 RISERS

(+17) TreVeyon Henderson (NE) 44OVR, RB12

  • Henderson has emerged in a breakout performance, scoring five touchdowns in his last two games and becoming the first player since Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 18, 2024, to achieve a remarkable stat line of over 60 rush yards, two rushing touchdowns, five receptions, 30 receiving yards, and a receiving touchdown.

  • His exceptional performance puts him in elite rookie company, joining legends like Edgerrin James, Terrell Davis, and Jahvid Best as one of only four rookies to post such a comprehensive stat line.

  • Henderson is set to face the Cincinnati Bengals next, a team considered one of the worst defenses in the NFL, potentially setting up another opportunity for a standout performance.

  • Our take: At the start of the season, we had him ranked 38 overall. He fell as low as 71 on 11/5. Now at 44 overall, 2 weeks later, he has almost come back full circle. Sometimes we really overcomplicate fantasy football. The buy-low seems obvious in hindsight. I’m guessing there will still be some form of a committee when Rhamondre is back, but TreVeyon’s arrow is still clearly up.

(+17) Stefon Diggs (NE) 111OVR, WR37

  • Stefon Diggs has been a consistent performer, averaging 7.1 targets and 14.8 fantasy points per game over the past eight weeks, with double-digit fantasy points in all but one contest, making him a borderline must-start WR2.

  • In a recent game, Diggs demonstrated his value by finishing with nine receptions on 11 targets for 105 receiving yards and 19.5 PPR fantasy points, leading the team's pass-catchers in every category.

  • The veteran wide receiver has an appealing rest-of-season schedule, making him an attractive trade target for fantasy managers looking to bolster their wide receiver position.

  • Our take: Two Pats rising 17 spots this week? Seems fishy. But Diggs’ recent performances justify it. Pats WRs have the 9th easiest rest-of-season (ROS) schedule according to Draft Sharks.

(+19) Aaron Jones (MIN) 146 OVR, RB35

  • Aaron Jones has defied aging expectations, emerging as the clear favorite in the Vikings backfield since returning from injury and consistently producing double-digit fantasy points in his last three games.

  • Jones presents an attractive trade option for contending teams, particularly due to his favorable playoff schedule facing Dallas, New York, and Washington - all ranked among the worst fantasy defenses against running backs.

  • The article recommends acquiring Jones for a reasonable price of a 2026 third-round pick, positioning him as an ideal short-term acquisition for teams looking to strengthen their running back depth for a playoff run.

  • Our take: Jordan Mason has been a non-factor since Jones returned from injury, and Mason just had season lows in snap share the past two weeks (25% and 16%). MIN has the 6th easiest RB schedule for the fantasy football playoffs, which sets up Jones as a cheap, solid buy for contenders.

📉 FALLERS

(-13) Sam Darnold (SEA) 68 OVR, QB19

  • Darnold has experienced a recent decline in fantasy production, scoring less than 10 fantasy points in three of his last four games after previously maintaining five straight weeks of 15.0+ point performances. His Week 11 performance was particularly challenging, completing just 29-of-44 passes for 279 yards and four interceptions against the Los Angeles Rams.

  • The quarterback's recent struggles can be contextualized by the quality of defenses he has faced, including tough matchups against Houston and the Rams, which have impacted his statistical output. One poor performance came in a blowout win where the Seahawks attempted only 12 passes.

  • Darnold has a potentially more favorable upcoming schedule, facing the Titans, Vikings, Falcons, and Colts in the next four games. This stretch could provide an opportunity for him to return to his earlier season form of fantasy-relevant performances.

  • Our take: Yes, the defenses he has struggled against have been good, but I guess that’s the point. We have not seen Darnold consistently step up in the big moment yet. And that makes me want to fade him in dynasty because it could catch up to him and his job security.

(-12) J.J. McCarthy (MIN) 72 OVR, QB21

  • J.J. McCarthy is struggling in his early NFL career, completing just 16 of 32 pass attempts for 150 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in a game that dropped the Vikings to a 4-6 record. The article humorously notes that McCarthy claims an alter ego named '9' is in charge on game days, suggesting his performance is suffering from this mental approach.

  • McCarthy's passing style is critically described as overly aggressive, with the article comparing his delivery to Aroldis Chapman throwing 105 MPH pitches, indicating a lack of touch and finesse in his quarterback play. The Vikings may be regretting letting MVP candidate Sam Darnold walk in favor of McCarthy.

  • The young quarterback's dynasty value has been consistently dropping since his first NFL snap, with the article suggesting he has yet to show the skills necessary to be an effective NFL quarterback.

  • Our take: JJ is following a similar drop in value as TreVeyon did. He started the season at 44 overall and now sits at 72. The big difference here is that I have not seen a ton of optimism about JJ turning it around. Maybe Kevin O'Connell, the QB Whisperer, has finally met his match.

(-14) Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) 139 OVR, RB33

  • Croskey-Merritt has been extremely ineffective, scoring fewer than 5.0 half-PPR points in five consecutive weeks, with his best performance being a mere 5.3 half-PPR points against the Bears in Week 6.

  • The Washington Commanders rookie has not had a single game with over 3.5 yards per carry in his last five games, highlighting his struggles to produce on the ground. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has been more efficient in the same offensive environment.

  • Despite the team's initial faith in Croskey-Merritt (trading Brian Robinson Jr. before the season), the rookie has done little to justify his role. He hasn't rushed for 40 yards in a game since Week 6, and the team has been forced to turn to Rodriguez for more productive running.

  • Our take: File this away as another case of “don’t overreact to dynasty reddit hype.” It’s hard to find positives when a guy is getting outplayed by Chris Rodriguez. I wouldn’t drop him in dynasty, but I’m not that optimistic for a turnaround either.

That’s all for tonight!

See ya pizza,

Joe

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