6 risers and fallers (week 16)

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Shouting out some great content in the industry:

• Draft Sharks: Don’t Trust The Box Score: Don’t Be Fooled By Kyle Pitts Again

• Fantasy Footballers: Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 16

• Fantasy Life: Podcast: The Fantasy Football Data You NEED to Know for Week 16 (Utilization Report)

• Locked On Dynasty Football: Podcast: Miami Dolphins BENCH Tua Tagovailoa—Will Jaylen Waddle’s Dynasty Stock TANK?

• Yahoo Sports: Will Week 15’s unexpected fantasy football playoff heroes deliver again?

RISERS 📈 

QB - C.J. Stroud (HOU)

+7 spots, 42 OVR, QB14

Mentioned in : Week 16 Waiver Wire Pickups: Michael Carter's Volume Spike Makes Him a Must-Add

• Stroud had his second-highest fantasy output of the season in Week 15 against the Cardinals, throwing for 260 yards and 3 TDs in Houston's 40-20 win, while also hitting double-digit rushing yards for the ninth time in 11 starts.

• The Texans have won six straight games, with Stroud starting the last three, and are set to host the Raiders in Week 16 - a team that recently accumulated just 75 yards of offense in a shutout loss to the Eagles.

• Stroud is considered a viable streaming option with top-12 quarterback upside in Week 17, benefiting from the Texans' recent momentum and potential offensive strategy adjustments due to potential RB injuries.

• Our take: Stroud’s QB finishes this year are:

  • QB1-12 = 3 times

  • QB13-18 = 3 times

  • QB19-24 = 1 time

  • QB25+ = 4 times

  • In his last 3 starts of this 6-game win streak (he was hurt for the first 3), he has finished QB26, QB18, and QB8.

  • To me, he’s a solid mid-range QB2, and his young age and strong job security give him a bump in dynasty. We have him 1 spot below a 2026 Early 1st in our consensus dynasty rankings.

QB - Bryce Young (CAR)

+11 spots, 76 OVR, QB21

Mentioned in : Podcast: 15 Transactions for Week 16

• Bryce Young is a viable streaming option in Week 16 against the Buccaneers, who rank as a top-five quarterback matchup by adjusted points allowed and have allowed 18 or more standard fantasy points in each of their last six games.

• Tampa Bay recently gave up 21 and 27-point performances to Tyler Shough and Kirk Cousins over their last two games, and the NFC South divisional matchup features a three-point spread with a solid 45.5-point total.

• He's not the worst streamer in the world for QB-needy situations, though he should only be considered in formats where better options are unavailable.

• Our take: Didn’t expect the 2023 QB class to take over this week’s risers and fallers newsletter. Bryce Young’s last 4 games include finishes of QB2, QB21, QB4, and QB21 again, highlighting how wide his range of outcomes is. He’s got the upside this week in a great matchup.

RB - Kenneth Gainwell (PIT)

+23 spots, 176 OVR, RB41

Mentioned in : Will Week 15's unexpected fantasy football playoff heroes deliver again?

• Kenneth Gainwell has been trending towards a big game like his Week 15 performance for some time, with a massive role in the Steelers' passing offense. He is one of only three running backs this season to lead his team in catches, alongside Christian McCaffrey and De'Von Achane.

• Gainwell is clearly in Aaron Rodgers' circle of trust, with Rodgers quick to look for him in checkdown situations. This trust has been consistently demonstrated throughout the season.

• In the upcoming matchup against the Lions, Gainwell is in a favorable position to catch a significant number of passes, as the Lions are likely to push Pittsburgh to increase its pass attempts.

• Our take: Kenny has at least six receptions in four of his last five games, and this matchup against DET should lend itself towards that trend continuing. I’ll be starting him in one of my semifinal matchups this week (never thought I’d say that).

FALLERS 📉 

QB - Patrick Mahomes (KC)

-7 spots, 17 OVR, QB7

Mentioned in : Latest NFL News & Rumors This Week: Tua Tagovailoa to the Bench

• Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL and is out for the season after going down in Week 15's loss to the Chargers. The Kansas City Chiefs have already been eliminated from playoff contention, marking a dramatic end to their season.

• Mahomes underwent surgery on Monday to repair the LCL part of his ACL/LCL ligament and has immediately begun his rehabilitation process. ESPN's Adam Schefter suggests it would be a surprise if Mahomes is not ready for Week 1 in 2026.

• The injury is a significant blow to the Chiefs, as Mahomes has been a cornerstone of their success in recent years. His recovery and potential return will be a major storyline heading into the next NFL season.

• Our take: If you’re able to get any sort of meaningful discount on Mahomes, I think you gotta take it. Maybe the owner in your league is panicking. I wouldn’t buy just to buy, though. Push for that discount.

TE - Brock Bowers (LV)

-4 spots, 16 OVR, TE1

Mentioned in : Podcast: Fantasy Breakdown of EVERY NFL Week 15 Game (INSTANT ANALYSIS!)

• Brock Bowers continues to see elite playing time under offensive coordinator Greg Olson, posting a 97% route participation rate in Week 15, his third straight game at 94% or higher.

• Despite the heavy usage, Bowers managed only 8.8 fantasy points due to Kenny Pickett's abysmal performance, as the quarterback failed to attempt a single pass at least 20 yards downfield.

• Bowers led the Raiders with a 28% target share, but the offense's dysfunction under Pickett severely limits his upside, making him a volume-based TE1 with capped ceiling.

• The upcoming matchup against the Texans could see the Raiders implied for under 10 points, further dampening Bowers' fantasy outlook despite his elite role and talent.

• Our take: Despite the daunting matchup vs. HOU and his down year, Bowers is still a top-4 option this week at TE. Our consensus weekly projections only have McBride, Kittle, and Pitts ahead of him. All Bowers dips are for buying.

WR - Khalil Shakir (BUF)

-7 spots, 133 OVR, WR48

Mentioned in : Podcast: 10 Trends for Week 16

• Khalil Shakir averaged over 12 PPR points per game from Week 4 through Week 10 with a 26% target share, but has fallen to just 8 PPR points per game since then.

• He has seen target shares below 20% in each of his last three games, though his 80% route share in Week 15 was positive and marked only the second time over 70% in his last five games.

• The stability that made him a valuable draft pick has disappeared, making him a difficult player to trust in fantasy lineups down the stretch.

• Our take: Our consensus weekly projections have Shakir as WR37 this week and projected for 10.90 ppr points. I’d rather take a shot on guys with more upside who are ranked below him. e.g. Pearsall (WR38), BTJ (WR39).

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