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Featuring AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and more.

June 03, 2026

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Yooo!

I’m writing tonight’s newsletter from the past. 6 hours behind in Hawaii on my honeymoon. I don’t know why they stopped doing the Pro Bowl here. It’s perfect.

Manele Golf Course in Lanai

In case you missed it, our brand-new website is live and 100% FREE for everyone!

  • 200+ fantasy football podcasts and websites tracked

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  • and much more to come!

As we continue to work on the new site, we have reduced the newsletter cadence to 1x per week for the early part of the offseason.

We’ll increase the newsletter cadence again later in the offseason.

Last week, I asked you all: “Where will Trevor Lawrence finish next season?”

69.4% of you said “QB 7-12”

Best subscriber comments:

  • QB 7-12: “Took 7-12, but expect him to be much closer to 7 than 12. Feels like there's finally some organizational consistency and strong coaching in JAX.”

  • QB 7-12: “His hair alone puts him in the top 10.”

  • QB 7-12: “2025 showed us the best version of TLaw. His passing is more refined with experience, and he still runs the ball. Although rushing TDs are not reliable. This keeps him from that tier with Josh Allen and Lamar. I expect him to finish as QB 8-9 with improvement across his supporting cast.”

Our take: I voted with the majority here. He has the weapons, the coach, and the rushing upside. Can’t ask for much more than that. He feels like one of the safest bets in this QB7-12 range.

Alright, now let’s get to some news you might’ve missed this week.

Giddy up.

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The big news this week is obviously the AJ Brown trade, so we’ll be focusing on the 5 players most impacted by this move.

A.J. Brown has officially joined the New England Patriots following a trade from the Philadelphia Eagles.

  • Brown reunites with head coach Mike Vrabel and joins an offensive system under coordinator Josh McDaniels that is expected to feature him as a high-volume, coverage-dictating X-receiver, drawing comparisons to the role previously held by Rob Gronkowski.

  • Despite his status as a proven WR1, Brown enters his late 20s with lingering concerns regarding chronic knee health and recent performance metrics that suggest a potential decline in separation ability and speed.

  • Fantasy analysts remain largely bullish on his outlook as a high-end WR1/2, projecting significant target volume in New England, though some advise caution due to his age and the risk of physical regression.

  • Our take: AJB is 28.9 years old. There have already been some signs of him slowing down from his peak, but I still expect him to be a very good WR this year. Don’t think we need to overcomplicate this one.

The acquisition of A.J. Brown via trade provides Maye with a true alpha WR1, addressing a critical need for a reliable boundary target to complement his aggressive, downfield passing style.

  • Despite his high-level production, Maye faces scrutiny regarding his performance against elite playoff defenses and a challenging 2026 schedule, with analysts monitoring his ability to maintain efficiency under increased defensive pressure.

  • Maye is demonstrating significant leadership growth, with teammates and coaches noting his poise, command of team meetings, and improved mental processing of the offensive scheme heading into his third season.

  • He is a candidate for regression, as his 8.9 YPA and 6.3% touchdown rate from last season are unlikely to be sustained. However, the acquisition of AJB is expected to drive increased passing volume, potentially offsetting these dips.

  • Our take: The tough schedule and regression discussions are valid points, but it’s just nitpicking. The AJB move is a perfect match for his deep passing accuracy. I expect Maye to be in the top-5 fantasy QB discussion for a long time.

Jalen Hurts is navigating an offensive transition under new coordinator Sean Mannion, focusing on under-center work and rhythm-based passing.

  • The new offensive approach aims to improve efficiency on short-area passes (0-10 yards), an area where the team ranked 22nd in EPA per play last season, by incorporating more screen concepts and rhythm-based passing.

  • Hurts' fantasy production has historically dipped without A.J. Brown, dropping from an average of 23.0 points per game to 19.7 points per game in games played without him since 2022.

  • Despite the departure of AJ Brown, Hurts remains a high-floor fantasy asset due to his elite rushing ability, though his designed run usage has regressed from his career-high levels.

  • Our take: Hurts has consistently shown throughout his career an ability to adapt to new offensive systems. Yes, he’s losing AJB, but he’s also adding Lemon. A lot is changing, but I still expect Hurts to be in that QB8 range we’ve seen the past two seasons.

Makai Lemon is sidelined for the remainder of spring workouts with a hamstring injury. The Eagles expect him to be fully recovered for the start of training camp.

  • Analysts compare his playstyle to high-volume slot specialists like Amon-Ra St. Brown, citing his route-running precision, toughness, and ability to generate yards after the catch.

  • The coaching staff's emphasis on 11 personnel and the need for a high-level slot receiver suggests a significant target share opportunity for the rookie.

  • Despite his high draft capital and efficiency metrics, some analysts express caution regarding his immediate fantasy impact due to the Eagles' historically low passing volume and Jalen Hurts’ tendency to avoid the middle of the field.

  • Our take: We’ve seen the PHI offense support two high-value WRs for years. I don’t expect anything different for Lemon. Low-end WR2 feels like the median outcome for him.

While he is a proven technician and route runner, his fantasy ceiling remains a point of debate due to the team's shift toward a more balanced, run-heavy offensive scheme and his smaller physical frame.

  • Smith is now the clear focal point of the Eagles' passing attack, with analysts projecting his target volume to climb toward 150-160 targets as he assumes the primary WR1 role.

  • Historical data supports his ability to handle this increased workload, as he has consistently produced at a high-end WR1 level in games where he functioned as the primary target.

  • He averaged 19.3 PPR points per game in 2025 when receiving 7+ targets, highlighting his upside as a WR1.

  • Our take: I’ll share my thoughts in next week’s poll recap.

Where will DeVonta Smith finish next season in PPR formats?

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That’s all for tonight!

See ya pizza,

Joe

P.S. In case you missed it, catch up on our most recent newsletters below:

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