Unrealized air yards

Featuring DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, and more.

October 01, 2026

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Alright, now let’s get to some news you might’ve missed.

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All article and podcast links go to a summarized Dynasty Pulse page where you can see quick insights and also get the link to the original article/podcast if you want the full content:

Started playing with some new charts to identify potential buy and sell candidates.

The chart below shows PPR Points vs. Unrealized Air Yards.

Some quick takeaways that caught my eye:

  • JSN is a monster and basically breaks the chart (top left). He’s not leaving much out there.

  • DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Matthew Golden, and Davante Adams are the top 4 in unrealized air yards.

    • DK and Terry are underperforming vs. league average.

    • Davante and Golden are overperforming vs. league average.

So the next question would be: “Do we think this underperformance or overperformance is sustainable or should we expect a change?”

One stat we can look at to help answer that is Catchable Target % vs. Unrealized Air Yards

When looking at this view, you’ll notice ALL 4 players now sit in the bottom right.

So their catchable target rate is roughly similar, but it’s not showing up that way in the box score.

Fantasy points over expected through 3 weeks can help us validate that:

  • DK Metcalf (-13.7 points)

  • Terry McLaurin (-10.3 points)

  • Matthew Golden (-3.9 points)

  • Davante Adams (+14.5 points)

Better days could be ahead for DK and Terry.

Golden is performing closest to expectations.

And Davante is overperforming.

Final takeaways:

  • None of this analysis is perfect. It just helps tell part of the story.

  • Buying low on DK and Terry (big emphasis on “low”) could see a decent ROI.

  • Golden looks like a decent hold.

  • Davante looks like a sell-high (again, emphasis on “high”). Puka coming back soon reinforces this idea.

  • Don’t move these guys just to move them on only 3 weeks of data. But if you can get outsized returns, it might be worth taking the shot.

🟢 Did you like tonight’s analysis? Reply to this email if there are any stats you want me to look into next.

Don’t forget to check out today’s National Pulse for more trending topics, including:

  • Kyle Pitts' usage tests his rebound case

  • Puka Nacua’s injury clouds his trade value

  • Hampton's shrinking role boosts Mitchell's case

That’s all for tonight!

See ya pizza,

Joe

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