6 risers and fallers (week 11)

Featuring Justin Jefferson, Travis Hunter, and more.

November 12, 2025

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Yooo!

The results from last night’s poll are in: 57.38% use KTC as the general baseline for player value.

So moving forward, we’re going to help you spot value on KTC vs. our consensus rankings. I’ll work this into the newsletter in a few different ways.

Alright, let’s dive into some risers and fallers for this week.

Giddy up.

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📈 RISERS

+28 Adonai Mitchell (NYJ, WR66, 185 OVR)

  • Adonai Mitchell has been traded to the Jets, joining an offense that currently has only one pass-catcher with 45+ targets. The article suggests Mitchell has a wide-open opportunity to relaunch his career on the Jets' roster.

  • Mitchell's potential is enhanced by the recent placement of Josh Reynolds on IR, which further opens up receiving opportunities. The article implies Mitchell has both the talent and draft capital to potentially become a significant contributor.

  • The author playfully notes Mitchell has a chance to establish himself beyond any previous negative perceptions, positioning him as a player with intriguing upside for fantasy managers willing to take a speculative add.

  • Our take: Mitchell has largely been a disappointment up until this point in his short career. Which means he should fit in well with the Jets (I couldn’t resist there lol). Jokes aside, the talent and opportunity are there. He costs about a 2026 Early 3rd. I’ll take the long-term shot at that price.

+18 Tyler Allgeier (ATL, RB43, 176 OVR)

  • Tyler Allgeier was identified as another undervalued runner whose solid efficiency and toughness could yield a bounce-back season if he gains a larger workload or relocates in free agency.

  • The hosts illustrated that he remains productive behind Bijan Robinson yet rarely garners trade interest, making him a cheap dynasty target with situational upside.

  • They theorized that if Allgeier joined a backfield like Dallas at a mid-level salary, he could post fantasy numbers similar to Javonte Williams this past season.

  • Overall, Tyler Allgeier was portrayed as inexpensive depth with realistic paths to starting opportunities if roster circumstances shift in the coming offseason.

  • Our take: This is a pure speculative bet. He’s only 9 spots higher in our ranks than Adonai Mitchell. Similar to Mitchell, a change of scenery could provide a massive boost to his fantasy value. Landing spot will determine everything for him next year, but he could easily produce RB2 value if given a shot.

+20 Theo Johnson (NYG, TE18, 156 OVR)

  • From Week 4 to Week 9, Theo Johnson emerged as the TE13 in fantasy points per game, demonstrating significant potential with an 18.6% target share and 31.7 receiving yards per game. His performance has been particularly noteworthy in the red zone, where he accumulated six red-zone targets and five touchdowns during that six-game stretch.

  • In his most recent game against the Bears, Johnson continued his strong play with a 22.2% target share, recording seven receptions and 75 receiving yards. His consistent involvement in the Giants' passing attack and red-zone offense makes him a compelling streaming option at tight end.

  • Johnson's ability to convert opportunities into touchdowns and maintain a high target share suggests he will continue to flirt with TE1 production weekly. His emerging role in the Giants' offense makes him an attractive pickup for fantasy managers looking for tight end depth.

  • Our take: We have Theo just below a 2026 Late 2nd in our rankings. Idk if I’d pay that price for him because the upside doesn’t seem much higher than a low TE1. He’s better off as a secondary piece in a bigger trade. The manager who has him probably won’t lose sleep by trading him, but there’s still some value here.

📉 FALLERS

-10 Travis Hunter (JAX, WR25, 71 OVR)

  • Travis Hunter suffered a season-ending LCL injury, forcing dynasty managers to reconsider his long-term role in Jacksonville’s offense.

  • The hosts debated whether he returns as a full-time receiver, noting that coaches appear to prefer him on offense and that reducing his two-way workload could extend his career value.

  • Several analysts suggested the Jaguars’ heavy draft investment ensures they continue featuring Travis Hunter prominently, with optimism around his offensive upside despite temporary dynasty ranking drops.

  • Others cautioned that persistent two-way usage could increase injury risk, but a full-time offensive shift might ultimately raise his dynasty ceiling in 2026 and beyond.

  • Our take: I think Travis Hunter dips are for buying. We have him worth a 2026 Mid 1st in our rankings. One thing we’ve noticed in our rankings is that KTC overvalues draft picks vs. other sources.

    • Check out these 2026 Mid 1st values:

      • KTC = 55 OVR

      • Dynasty Daddy = 74

      • Fantasy Calc = 77

      • Dynasty Pulse = 72

    • If your league uses KTC trade values as a baseline, that means you could get Travis Hunter for a 2027 Late 1st (71 OVR on KTC) when we really have him valued as a 2026 Mid 1st. That’s huge.

-7 Garrett Wilson (NYJ, WR15, 42 OVR)

  • Wilson aggravated a knee injury during the Jets' 27-20 win over the Browns, which had previously caused him to miss two games before the team's Week 9 bye. His performance in Week 10 was particularly disappointing, finishing with zero catches on three targets.

  • The Jets' passing game was essentially non-existent in the game, with quarterback Justin Fields throwing for just 54 yards. Given the team's current situation, the Jets might opt to keep Wilson out to ensure he fully recovers.

  • With the team not playing for much this season, Breece Hall remains the only fantasy-relevant player on the Jets roster at the moment.

  • Our take: Wilson has already been ruled out for Thursday’s game and is expected to miss 3-4 weeks. I don’t think there is any way you could trust him for the rest of this year. But I still believe in the talent for next year and beyond. It can only get better from here… right? We have him directly above a 2026 or 2027 Early 1st in our rankings.

-3 Justin Jefferson (MIN, WR4, 9 OVR)

  • Jefferson had a disappointing performance in Week 10, hauling in just four of his 12 targets during a loss to the Ravens, which resulted in his lowest fantasy points total of the season despite a season-high target volume.

  • The wide receiver's struggles were notable, as he failed to convert his significant target share into meaningful production, highlighting a rare off-day for the typically reliable receiver.

  • Despite the underwhelming performance, the article suggests Jefferson will bounce back as a solid WR1 in Week 12 against Chicago, indicating this was likely just a temporary setback.

  • Our take: This is the lowest his value has been all season. I can tell you from personal experience that some managers are nervous about him. If you can get any discount on JJ, you take it. Period.

Remember, we include the ranking from each source in our consensus rankings.

So you can easily compare our consensus rankings vs KTC to find value in your leagues 👇️

That’s all for tonight!

See ya pizza,

Joe

P.S. In case you missed it, catch up on our most recent newsletters and other helpful resources below: