5 risky plays (week 15)

Featuring Alec Pierce, Courtland Sutton, and more.

December 11, 2025

Yooo!

Good luck to anybody who has players going in tonight’s TNF game.

I flip-flopped 1,000,001 times on whether to start Egbuka tonight or play Swift/Fannin later in the weekend. I ended up sitting Egbuka and punting the decision to Sunday (with a lean towards Fannin). Probably the toughest start/sit call I’ve had to make all year…

But enough about my lineup decisions. Last night, I asked if you would trade an early 2nd to acquire Daniel Jones, and 78.8% of you said “No.”

Our take: I’m riding with the majority on this one. There were some signs that the wheels were coming off even before the season-ending injury. I think he deserves another starting shot, but I’m okay letting someone else deal with this headache.

Best subscriber comment: “I have heard the Colts may bring back Unitas next season”

Alright, now let’s dive into 5 risky plays for this weekend.

Giddy up.

Our take: I pretty much feel the same way about all of these players below, so I’m combining them all into one take. I’d be nervous starting any of these guys this week. That doesn’t mean they’re “must-sits.” It just means that I’m avoiding these guys where I can.

WR - Alec Pierce (IND)

  • Alec Pierce is first mentioned as a risky wide receiver option that the hosts are happy to avoid when deciding between him and a running back like Aaron Jones.

  • Later they call Alec Pierce a clear sit, driven mainly by the extremely shaky Colts quarterback situation that could involve Philip Rivers returning after years away, a banged up Riley Leonard, or Brett Rypien.

  • They note that the offense was already trending down with Daniel Jones and see no realistic path for deep threat production to improve with even less stable quarterback play.

  • In this context the hosts say that Jonathan Taylor is the only Colts player they want to start for Week 15, and they warn managers not to get cute by inserting Alec Pierce into playoff lineups.

RB - Blake Corum (LAR)

  • Blake Corum is framed as the birth of a future fantasy option more than a current one, and in most leagues, starting him in Week 15 would likely be overthinking it.

  • The Rams are giving Blake Corum real work as a relief back behind Kyren Williams to reduce wear on their stars, and he looks faster and more explosive than he did late in his Michigan career.

  • For this season, he is best viewed as a contingency flex you can use if necessary, while his longer-term profile could grow into a much more valuable fantasy role if circumstances change.

RB - Tony Pollard (TEN)

  • Tony Pollard is ranked as an RB3 or desperation flex, with the hosts warning not to overreact to his huge Week 14 performance against the Cleveland Browns.

  • Pat Fitzmaurice notes that for most of the season, Tony Pollard has combined decent touch volume with poor efficiency and few spike weeks, making last week look like an outlier.

  • The matchup in San Francisco raises game-script concerns, and with Tyjae Spears preferred on passing downs, the analysts see Tony Pollard as a risky start who should only be used over low-volume or touchdown-only options.

TE - Brenton Strange (JAX)

  • Brenton Strange experienced a disappointing performance last week, failing to capitalize on a favorable matchup by securing only three of six targets for 27 scoreless receiving yards. Despite this setback, he had previously shown promise with two TE1 weekly finishes (TE4, TE7) in recent weeks.

  • Since Week 12, Strange has maintained a 17% target share, averaging 55 receiving yards per game and generating 2.39 yards per route run. His target profile includes three red zone targets and four deep targets during this period, indicating potential for explosive plays.

  • However, the expert analysis strongly advises against starting Strange this week, noting that the Jets have been particularly strong defensively against tight ends since Week 9. They have allowed the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game and the ninth-fewest fantasy points to the position, making Strange a risky fantasy option.

WR - Courtland Sutton (DEN)

  • Courtland Sutton is currently the WR23 in fantasy points per game, with an 18.5% target share and 59.5 receiving yards per game. He leads the team in deep targets with 13 and is second in red zone targets with 10, showing his importance in the Broncos' passing attack.

  • The article predicts a potentially down week for Sutton, particularly against Green Bay's defensive strategy. Since Week 12, the Packers have utilized two-high coverage at the second-highest rate (69.5%), which has negatively impacted Sutton's performance with a reduced 14% target share and 1.37 yards per route run.

  • Green Bay's defense has been solid against perimeter wide receivers, allowing the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game and 14th-fewest receiving yards per game since Week 10. The analysis suggests Sutton will likely need a touchdown to salvage his fantasy performance in Week 15.

That’s all for tonight!

See ya pizza,

Joe

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