5 risky plays (week 16)

Featuring Tyler Warren, Jaylen Warren, and more.

December 18, 2025

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Alright, now let’s dive into 5 risky plays for this week.

Giddy up.

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Shouting out some great content in the industry:

RB - Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX)

  • Etienne has struggled recently, averaging under 4.0 yards per carry in three straight games, and faces a particularly challenging matchup against the Denver Broncos' run defense.

  • The Broncos currently rank sixth in defensive rushing DVOA and allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game, presenting a significant obstacle for Etienne's performance.

  • Many of Etienne's best rushing performances this year have come against weak run defenses, which makes this matchup especially problematic and increases the likelihood of a low-output game.

  • Our take: Don’t overthink this one. He’s still projected to be our RB13 this week with 14.10 ppr points. It’s just that the risk for a bust is higher than normal this week. You might want to take a higher upside shot somewhere else in your lineup as a result.

TE - Tyler Warren (IND)

  • Tyler Warren's performance has dramatically declined since November, with his tight end status dropping from potentially top-tier to questionable. The loss of Daniel Jones and subsequent quarterback changes have impacted his production, averaging just 5.7 fantasy points per game over the past month.

  • Warren has struggled with efficiency, totaling only five catches for 34 yards in the last two weeks. The upcoming game against the 49ers with Philip Rivers at quarterback offers limited optimism, especially after a weak performance against the Seahawks where he caught just three of six targets for 19 yards.

  • While Warren is still likely to receive around six targets, the article suggests he has fallen out of 'elite' and potentially even 'starter' range. Fantasy managers are advised to seek alternative tight end options if possible, such as Kyle Pitts, Harold Fannin Jr., or Darren Waller.

  • Our take: Warren comes in as our TE10 this week with a projection of 10.30 ppr points. There’s very little upside here with Rivers at QB, and I’d strongly consider other options if you can.

RB - Kareem Hunt (KC)

  • Hunt is currently the highest-ranked Chiefs running back at RB29 and is viewed as a risky flex starter in the upcoming game against Tennessee.

  • With both the Chiefs and Titans out of playoff contention, there's an incentive for both teams to give backup players extended playing time as a 2026 audition.

  • The experts suggest Hunt could be part of a strategy to keep the clock running and limit injury risks while potentially showcasing talent for future opportunities.

  • Our take: These situations suck because we have no idea how the coaches will play this out. He would’ve normally been in FLEX consideration for this matchup, but because of the uncertainty, I’d be looking for safer options.

RB - Breece Hall (NYJ)

  • Breece Hall is facing significant challenges in Week 16, with experts expressing concern about his potential fantasy performance. He has dropped to RB31 over the last five weeks and was recently losing work to Isaiah Davis in a loss to Jacksonville.

  • The Jets' offensive struggles are a major factor in Hall's diminished fantasy value. With Brady Cook likely to start at quarterback, the Jets' offensive drives are expected to be limited, reducing Hall's opportunities to score fantasy points.

  • Experts describe Hall as a 'backed-into-a-corner play' this week, suggesting he is not a proactive pick and could disappoint fantasy managers in a crucial playoff week.

  • Our take: Breece checks in as our RB19 with a projection of 13.00 ppr points. I’m seriously considering Kenneth Gainwell or Michael Carter over him this week in one league. I will probably end up starting Breece, but the fact that it’s even a conversation tells you everything you need to know.

RB - Jaylen Warren (PIT)

  • Warren has experienced a significant drop in performance, recently totaling just 12 rushing attempts for 33 yards and three receptions for 15 receiving yards, resulting in a season-low 7.8 PPR fantasy points while battling an illness.

  • The running back is facing increased competition from Kenneth Gainwell, who has emerged as the Steelers' top running back, averaging 13.8 touches and 18 fantasy points per game over the past five weeks compared to Warren's 13.6 touches and 11.4 fantasy points.

  • Warren's situation is further complicated by a tough matchup against the Detroit Lions, who have held running backs to just 17.6 fantasy points per game and limited opposing running backs to 16.7 or fewer fantasy points in eight of their past ten games.

  • Our take: With Gainwell taking the majority of the passing work, that puts added risk on Warren this week in a tough matchup on the ground and a likely trailing game script.

That’s all for tonight!

See ya pizza,

Joe

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