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Featuring Josh Jacobs, Christian Watson, and more.
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ICYMI - our website got a major upgrade over the weekend.
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In the last newsletter, I asked you all: âWill Jalen Coker finish as a top 36 WR this year?â
62.5% of you said, âYesâ

Best subscriber comments:
No: âHow are we so sold on an undrafted player putting up those kind of numbers in this offense. Feels like classic case of capable NFL receiver, maybe top 50 in fantasy.â
No: âTop 36?! There's 32 teams in the NFL. There's at least 1/3 of those teams with a better #2 than Coker that will be more productive. Tet can finish top 15 and the remainder of what you get from Bryce will be enough to get the next guy in the 40-50 range at best.â
Yes: âCoke heads unite! Top 36? Bah I see top 18 in the horizon. Heâs the panthers wr1!â
Our take: I voted yes. Hereâs some math to considerâŚ
Bryce Young threw 518 passes last year (in 16 regular season games + 1 playoff game). Thatâs 32.38 passes per game.
Coker had a 16.67% target share last year in the 10 games he played with Bryce Young (including 1 playoff game).
Over a full 17 game season at those rates, thatâs 91.73 targets.
Coker has caught 73.27% of his targets in his career. That would be 67.2 receptions.
Coker has a yards-per-catch of 13.59 for his career. That would be 913.7 yards.
Coker has caught a TD on 5.94% of his career targets. That would be 5.45 td.
Add that all up and you get 11.25 ppr pts/gm and 191.27 points for the season.
Last yearâs WR36 was Khalil Shakir with 166.4 ppr points.
Last yearâs WR24 was Jaylen Waddle with 194.12 ppr points.
The math above is a bit of an oversimplification, though. 11.25 pts/gm wouldâve ranked WR38 last year.
But he just got paid and is locked in as the WR2. A small uptick in target share while maintaining his career averages seems reasonable.
So it seems Coker absolutely has a shot to be a top 36 wr this year.
Alright, now letâs get to some news you mightâve missed.
Giddy up.


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All article and podcast links go to a summarized Dynasty Pulse page where you can see quick insights and also get the link to the original article/podcast if you want the full content:
RotoBaller (Article): Fantasy Football Running Back Targets and Avoids: Evaluating High Value Touches
Blitz Sports Media (Article): 5 Breakout players you NEED to draft
The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast (Podcast): The Show: Deep Sleepers, Rookie Wide Receiver Hype, and More
The Ringer Fantasy Football Show (Podcast): Five Breakout Offenses No One's Talking About (and Who to Draft From Them)
Instagram: 10 WR being drafted WR30+ that could return top 24 WR value

Tucker Kraft (TE, GB): He appears on track to play Week 1, and Green Bay is a different offense with him out there. The Packers' EPA per play was 0.12 with Kraft on the field and 0.02 with him off it.
Tyler Warren (TE, IND): Averaged 13.1 PPR points over the first 12 games, then 6.3 across the final five after Daniel Jones' season-ending injury. Drew 18 red zone targets, 10 of them inside the 10.
De'Von Achane (RB, MIA): Miami's HC has floated 40 to 45 touch games, which would be uncharted territory. Achane had eight games with at least 20 touches last season and a career high of 29, so averaging 27 or 29 would put him near the top of the historical single-season workload list.
Ashton Jeanty (RB, LV): He ranked 18th with 975 rushing yards as a rookie, but his 815 yards after contact ranked 8th. That gap is what the Year 2 breakout case is built on, and it points at the offensive line rather than Jeanty.
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX): The last seven games looked like a different quarterback. He averaged 16.6 fantasy points over the first 10, then 26.6 over the final seven on 265 passing yards and 2.6 passing TDs a game. 359 rushing yards and nine rushing TDs add a floor that was missing earlier in his career.
Bucky Irving (RB, TB): The efficiency drop came with a usage problem behind it. Yards per carry fell from 5.4 to 3.4 and rushing success rate from 55.1%, 6th among qualifying backs, to 41.6%, 46th of 48. Tampa Bay also gave him none of its nine carries inside the 5 in the 10 games he played.

Chuba Hubbard's contested lead-back role is now clouded by a week-to-week hamstring injury.
Fantasy analysts increasingly project Hubbard as an early-season contributor in a committee rather than a secure workhorse, with Jonathon Brooks gaining ground and holding a possible path to the lead role. The bearish case centers on workload dependence, a prior loss of the starting job, weak efficiency indicators and a difficult offensive environment. Recent coverage cites 6.42 PPR points per game below a 60% snap share, zero explosive runs on 134 attempts and 0.57 yards per route run. Some fantasy coverage still ranks Hubbard above Brooks or views his discounted cost as a conditional value because he could open the season as Carolina's starter. The latest development is a hamstring injury that leaves him week-to-week, while separate fantasy projections still expect him to play in Week 1, potentially with a limited workload. National coverage reports that he and Brooks will rotate for a couple of first-team preseason drives without establishing a regular-season leader, and identifies offensive-line continuity as an important variable.
Our take: The efficiency metrics did not look good for Chuba last year. Some say he was playing hurt. Which might be playing out again⌠Whenever Chuba suits up, I expect him to be involved, but I think Brooks has a real shot at running away with the RB1 role here.
Josh Jacobs remains Green Bay's lead back, but a groin absence, unresolved suspension risk and efficiency concerns have pushed his fantasy outlook toward the RB1/RB2 borderline.
Beat coverage continues to identify Josh Jacobs as Green Bay's starting and primary ball carrier, with MarShawn Lloyd taking on expanded first-team work while Jacobs is sidelined. Jacobs is expected to miss at least one week of camp because of his groin injury, but no longer-term return timeline has been established. The NFL's review of his unresolved legal situation remains open, and potential discipline could still affect his availability. Fantasy analysts disagree sharply on his draft cost: some maintain an RB1 projection based on his workhorse and goal-line role, while others view his age, heavy workload, recurring injuries, declining efficiency and possible suspension as reasons to fade him at a second- or third-round price. National coverage likewise ranges from a ranking around 27th overall if he remains available to the 40s if suspension, age-related decline or reduced usage materializes.
Our take: You donât need to be a super efficient runner when the volume is there. And there isnât really any threat to Jacobsâ volume when heâs on the field. Youâre drafting him for touches and TDs. Of all the red flags mentioned, Iâm most worried about a possible suspension. I expect low-end RB1 production when heâs on the field.
Sam LaPorta's recovery and efficiency support a top-five ceiling, but target priority, red-zone access and uncertainty surrounding his back surgery keep his valuation in a broad TE1 range.
Beat coverage reports that LaPorta has returned from back surgery looking healthy and has caught touchdowns in camp, although the short, non-padded practices do not fully establish his game readiness or restored timing with Jared Goff. Fantasy analysts remain divided between a top-three to top-five rebound case built on his route-level efficiency, Detroit's passing environment and potential route volume, and a more cautious TE6-8 range because his healthy-span production averaged 5.4 targets and 11.9 PPR points per game while other Lions pass catchers compete for volume. National coverage adds that Goff wants LaPorta to become a major focal point and that new coordinator Drew Petzing could increase tight-end involvement, but it also highlights declining raw production, limited first-read and red-zone priority, and uncertainty surrounding LaPorta's surgically repaired back and contract situation. The newest coverage strengthens the recovery and efficiency case while leaving target distribution as the central unresolved issue.
Our take: Amon-Ra and Gibbs will get theirs. Which really leaves Jameson and LaPorta competing for the third best fantasy option in this offense. Iâm going with the guy that isnât playing with a surgically repaired back. Which makes me think itâll be tough for LaPorta to get back to his top-5 ceiling as the #4 option in this offense. TE6-8 feels more reasonable.

Christian Watson (WR, GB)
"Christian Watson, I thought, last year showed that he had the chops to be a true number one receiver. He is further removed from that knee injury that he came back quickly from last year and still produced. And the history of receivers getting more separation from those big time knee injuries is very, very positive. I think Christian Watson is a classic breakout this year at full health, in an offense that I think is going to throw the ball more, because I think that they're going to have some issues."
Our take: Will share my thoughts in the poll recap at the beginning of the next newsletter.
Will Christian Watson finish as a top 24 WR this season?(Vote to see live results) |
Thatâs all for tonight!
See ya pizza,
Joe

P.S. In case you missed it, catch up on our most recent newsletters below:
8/4/2026 - Oh-lah-vay
8/5/2026 - Give him his flowers
8/10/2026 - Comebacks
8/11/2026 - The cheat code
8/12/2026 - Coke Is It

