5 trends to watch (week 13)

Featuring Puka Nacua, John Metchie III, and more.

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Yooo!

Hope you’re having a great Thanksgiving. I’m writing this newsletter before any of today’s games and then scheduling it for 9pm, so I don’t know how they turned out, but here is some placeholder commentary that might make sense:

  • “Of course Jameson Williams would have a monster game after I decided to bench him.”

  • “I can’t believe Mahomes tried that left-handed pass that got returned for a pick-6.”

  • “Is Mike Gesicki the next Ja’Marr Chase?”

Jokes aside, I’m thankful for all of you reading and hope the newsletter has been a helpful addition to your weekly research routine this season!

Quick reminder: Our Black Friday Sale for 50% off Dynasty Pulse Premium expires in 6 days. Out-research your entire league in just 5 min a day 👇️ 

Alright, let’s dive into the 5 trends to watch for week 13.

Giddy up.

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WR - Puka Nacua (LAR)

  • With Tyler Higbee on IR, Puka Nacua's route share dramatically increased to 86.1%, running just one fewer route than Davante Adams. This significant uptick comes after weeks of reduced route participation that kept his routes below 70%.

  • Nacua's playing time boost is particularly impactful for his fantasy potential. In games where he runs over 70% of routes, his average targets jump from 7.2 to an impressive 12.4 per game, representing a substantial increase in potential production.

  • While his overall route share has improved, the article notes that his red-zone routes remain limited, with Nacua running only two routes inside the 20-yard line and being targeted just once. The analyst hopes Nacua's red-zone involvement will increase alongside his increased playing time.

WR - John Metchie III (NYJ)

  • In Week 11, John Metchie made his first start with the Jets, seeing an 11.1% target share and 6.7% first-read share, but managing to convert three receptions into 45 receiving yards and a touchdown.

  • Metchie's role in the offense expanded in Week 12 against the Ravens, increasing his target share to 25% and producing 65 receiving yards and another touchdown, showing promising development.

  • The wide receiver is now considered a viable PPR Flex option, particularly with an upcoming matchup against the Dolphins, who have allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers since Week 7.

WR - Luther Burden III (CHI)

  • Luther Burden III is emerging as a potential fantasy breakout candidate in the final five weeks of the season, showing promising signs since returning from a concussion in Week 10.

  • The rookie has been consistently improving, averaging three receptions on 4.3 targets for 41.3 receiving yards and 7.6 PPR fantasy points per game over his past three weeks.

  • Burden has demonstrated potential in games with three or more targets, averaging 10.4 fantasy points per game in such contests, making him an intriguing stash for fantasy managers looking for late-season upside.

WR - Parker Washington (JAX)

  • Since the Jaguars' Week 8 bye, Washington has emerged as the team's most productive wide receiver, averaging 4.5 receptions on 6.3 targets, 53.5 receiving yards, 0.5 touchdowns, and 14.3 PPR fantasy points per game.

  • Washington has been consistently productive, scoring 17 or more fantasy points in all but one contest and achieving 10.2 or more fantasy points in all but one game with five or more targets this season.

  • As a slot receiver, Washington has a solid fantasy playoff schedule that allows him to avoid facing opposing No. 1 cornerbacks, making him an attractive trade target.

WR - Ricky Pearsall (SF)

  • Pearsall returned to the 49ers lineup after missing six consecutive games with a PCL injury, but has struggled to make an impact, catching only one of two targets for no gain in Week 11 and two catches for eight yards in his subsequent game.

  • Despite being back to full health with a 76% snap share in recent games, Pearsall has been marginalized by quarterback Brock Purdy's tendency to concentrate passes on Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings.

  • The Week 13 matchup against the Cleveland Browns looks particularly challenging for Pearsall, as the Browns have given up the fewest receptions and yards to wide receivers, and strong winds and cold temperatures are expected to further complicate the passing game.

That’s all for tonight!

See ya pizza,

Joe

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