5 upside plays (week 16)

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Shouting out some great content in the industry:

• Fantasy Pros: 10 Most Intriguing Players of Week 16 (2025 Fantasy Football)

• Rotoballer: 4 Potential Fantasy Football League-Winners: Breakout Picks for the Fantasy Playoffs

• Reddit: For as long as you’ve played dynasty, who’s the most valuable player you’ve ever seen?

• Draft Sharks: Week 16 Matchups That Matter: Can Dallas’ Defense Save The Chargers’ Passing Game?

• Yahoo Sports: Fantasy Football: 1 Player to watch from each team for every Week 16 game

RB - Aaron Jones (MIN)

Mentioned in: Week 16 NFL Player Props: Expert Prop Picks and Anytime Touchdown Bets (2025)

• Despite dealing with nagging injuries and only 410 rushing yards on the year, Jones draws an extremely favorable matchup against the New York Giants, who have arguably the worst run defense in football.

• The Giants rank 32nd in defensive rushing DVOA and allow 153.6 rushing yards per game, the second-most in the league, creating an ideal scenario for Jones to potentially have his best game of the season.

• With J.J. McCarthy playing more competently at quarterback and a potential game script that could see Minnesota playing with a lead, Jones is well-positioned to exceed expectations and potentially score a touchdown.

• Our take: Jones checks in as our RB26 this week with a projection of 11.30 ppr points. The matchup is as good as it gets, so there’s a good chance he beats that projection.

TE - Jake Ferguson (DAL)

Mentioned in: Fantasy Football Week 16 Start/Sit Advice: 12 Sleepers & Duds (2025)

• Jake Ferguson has been a consistent tight end option, maintaining at least five targets in almost every game since Week 9. Despite a recent drought in touchdowns and receiving yards, he remains a viable fantasy option due to his consistent target volume.

• Ferguson has a promising matchup against the Chargers, who have allowed tight ends to score at least 14 PPR points in each of the last three weeks. This makes him an attractive streaming option for fantasy managers in need of tight end production.

• While Ferguson hasn't had a touchdown since Week 7 and hasn't exceeded 60 receiving yards since Week 2, his reliable target share keeps him relevant in fantasy considerations for Week 16.

• Our take: Ferguson is projected as our TE13 this week with 10.00 ppr points. We have Tyler Warren at TE9 (10.30 points), but I’d be more willing to start Ferguson because of the matchup and the fact that his QB isn’t a grandpa.

WR - Zay Flowers (BAL)

Mentioned in: NFL Betting Picks and Props for Novig (Week 16)

• Flowers has been a consistent performer this season, having gone for 60+ receiving yards in 10 of 14 games. His recent involvement in the Ravens' offense has been significant, with a 33% target share against Pittsburgh (resulting in 8-124 yards on 11 targets) and a 42% target share in the following game.

• The upcoming matchup against the Patriots presents a favorable opportunity for Flowers, as the Patriots rank 27th in DVOA pass defense. This suggests Flowers could continue his strong receiving performance.

• The article highlights the strategic value of taking Flowers' receiving total at 59.5 yards, which provides a better chance of winning the bet compared to higher totals at other sportsbooks. His consistent production and the matchup make him an intriguing fantasy and betting option.

• Our take: Flowers check in as our WR13 with a projection of 14.40 ppr points. He had one dud in Week 13, but has otherwise been very consistent.

RB - Audric Estime (NOR)

Mentioned in: Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: 4 deep stashes to consider adding heading into Week 16

• Audric Estimé emerged as a key part of the Saints' backfield after Devin Neal's hamstring injury, seeing nearly half the team's touches in a favorable matchup against the Jets. He gained 50 scrimmage yards, with most of his production coming through the air, positioning him as an intriguing fantasy option.

• The Saints are facing the Jets, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season, including 14 total touchdowns to RBs over their last five games. This creates a promising opportunity for Estimé to potentially break out as a startable RB3.

• Estimé appears to have an edge over teammate Evan Hull in the backfield, particularly due to his more significant role in the passing game. The article suggests he is the more enticing fantasy option and recommends adding him as a potential starter in Week 16.

• Our take: Neal was placed on IR which paves the way for Estime to make an impact in Week 16. We have him projected as RB33 (9.10 points) with upside for more, given the soft matchup.

WR - Quentin Johnston (LAC)

Mentioned in: Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit: Adonai Mitchell, Audric Estime among players in great spots for Week 16

• Johnston is potentially returning from a groin injury, having put in two limited practices to start the week, and faces an extremely favorable matchup against the Dallas Cowboys' defense, which ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to outside receivers.

• The Cowboys' defensive vulnerabilities are stark: they've allowed the second-most yards to outside receivers and have surrendered 16 touchdowns to outside receivers, the worst mark in the NFL.

• With top cornerback DaRon Bland likely needing a second foot surgery, primary outside receivers have scored double-digit PPR points against Dallas in six of their last seven matchups, making Johnston an intriguing fantasy option.

• Our take: QJ checks in as our WR41 with a projection of 10.10 points. I’d be really nervous starting him, given that he has only received 3 targets in each of his last 3 games. But the matchup is great, and they should have to score a lot to keep up with DAL. I wouldn’t blame you for rolling the dice on him if you need to take a shot.

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