Oooo new charts

Featuring Patrick Mahomes, Eli Stowers, and more.

March 25, 2026

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Yooo!

Happy MLB Opening Night to all who celebrate! Here’s a little light NFL reading to pass the time between innings.

In case you missed it, we dropped the newsletter cadence down to 1x per week for the early part of the offseason.

We’re working on some big updates to the website and can’t wait to share them with you as we make progress!

In the meantime, you can expect our newsletters to land in your inbox every Wed at 9pm EST up until the NFL draft (late April). We’ll increase the newsletter cadence again after that.

Last week, I asked you all: “How do you view the Waddle trade for his dynasty outlook?”

51.7% of you said “Slightly Positive.”

Best subscriber comments:

  • Slightly positive: “Less targets but better quality”

  • Neutral: “Sean Payton likes to spreads the ball out sooooo much that I bet Lil'Jordan Humphrey even gets his share.”

  • Slightly negative: “Went from a team that would be constantly playing from behind to a team who likes to run and plays good defense.”

Our take: Here’s a little teaser of where the new site is heading. Below is Jaylen Waddle’s sentiment momentum and distribution over the last 30 days:

You’ll just have to trust me on this, but not many charts look like this right now. This chart basically says: “A lot of people said a lot of positive things about Waddle’s fantasy outlook after the trade, and now chatter is starting to cool off.”

The trade pushed him up from WR29 to WR22 on KTC. That feels right to me. Right around that WR24 cutoff.

Alright, now let’s get to some other news you might’ve missed this week.

Giddy up.

QB - Patrick Mahomes (KC)

  • Patrick Mahomes has released the first public footage of him throwing a football since undergoing surgery in December for a torn ACL and LCL, demonstrating significant progress in his rehabilitation.

  • The video shows Mahomes planting his left foot during a dropback, indicating his knee is showing positive signs of recovery and stability, approximately 100 days post-surgery.

  • Mahomes is on track with his recovery, with optimism for his participation in voluntary offseason practices starting in May and a stated goal of being fully healthy for Week 1 of the upcoming season.

  • The Chiefs organization, including coach Andy Reid, has praised Mahomes' dedication to his rigorous seven-hour-a-day rehab regimen, highlighting his commitment to overcoming the injury.

  • Our take: The signing of Justin Fields made me think that Mahomes was unlikely to be ready for Week 1. I don’t have Mahomes on any teams, so I haven’t been paying much attention to his rehab. But just taking a look at his profile, seems like things are starting to trend more positively for him. Here’s another sneak peek at some features from our new site.

Building some positive momentum

Distribution of sentiment last 30 days

WR - Carnell Tate (Rookie)

  • Carnell Tate is projected as a mid-round one pick and ranks highly in the 2026 WR class, tied with prospects like Henry Ruggs and Garrett Wilson historically. His strengths include downfield ability, strong hands, and elite contested catch rates (7th best in the model's history).

  • Tate's ideal fit is on the boundary, attacking deep, with potential for chunk plays and a high touchdown ceiling due to his red zone prowess. However, concerns exist about his ability to win as a primary receiver against double teams and his after-the-catch ability compared to other top prospects.

  • Potential landing spots like the Saints (alongside Chris Olave), Commanders, or Giants are seen as ideal fits that could mitigate concerns about him facing constant double teams and allow him to thrive.

  • While Tate grades similarly to other receivers from loaded programs, his receiving yards per team pass attempt (0.54 over expected) was positive relative to his teammates. The model suggests 82% of comparable prospects become WR2s, with only 27% reaching WR1 status in their first three years.

  • Our take: I selfishly want Tate to land with the Giants. I’m not concerned about the “slow” 40-yard dash he ran at the combine. And neither is Tate. He decided not to re-run at his pro day, stating speed is 'overvalued' and pointing to successful receivers like Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba as examples. I’d consider him at the 1.03 in rookie drafts after Love and Mendoza.

TE - Eli Stowers (Rookie)

  • Eli Stowers possesses an elite college production profile, matching Brock Bowers and Evan Engram with over 60 receptions in a season, and backed it up with strong combine athleticism, including a vertical leap and broad jump that would have garnered more attention without Kenyon Sadiq.

  • Stowers' ZAP model comps, including Sam LaPorta and Mike Gesicki, are considered superior to Kenyon Sadiq's, and his production profile is stronger, leading some in the fantasy community to rank him higher.

  • Despite his strong profile and comps, Stowers is projected as a Round 2 pick (51st overall) compared to Sadiq's Round 1 projection (17th overall), creating a tier difference. However, he is still considered a first-round rookie pick in all formats, likely landing in the top 40.

  • Our take: Sadiq has been getting a lot of the hype this offseason (for good reason), but don’t sleep on Stowers at the back half of the 1st in your rookie draft. Will be interesting to see which team he lands with.

RB - Bhayshul Tuten (JAX)

  • Bhayshul Tuten is currently in a strong position as the presumed lead running back for the Jaguars, with his draft stock rising. He is considered the best talent among the Jacksonville backs, possessing good speed and versatility, which could make him a valuable fantasy pick in the round six range.

  • While Tuten is in a favorable spot, the Jaguars' backfield is not necessarily settled, as they have shown interest in other backs and could still add to the position via the draft. The team's offensive line is considered pretty good, and the offense itself is strong, offering upside for the lead back.

  • Concerns exist about Tuten potentially being a 'trap' back, meaning he might receive many carries but not be heavily involved in the goal-line or passing game. However, his college tape and speed suggest upside if he can improve in these areas.

  • Our take: It feels like Tuten will always be a guy that has hype propping his fantasy value up a little more than where I’m comfortable valuing him. I get it. He’s easy to root for. Sometimes it feels like the hype has gone too far, though.

Will Tuten be the Jags RB1 in Week 1?

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That’s all for tonight!

See ya pizza,

Joe

P.S. In case you missed it, catch up on our most recent newsletters below:

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