Career bests?

Featuring Justin Herbert, Quentin Johnston, and more.

June 17, 2026

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Yooo!

I’m back in NY. The Knicks are NBA Champions. And we’ve got hundreds of hours of fantasy football podcasts to digest tonight. Life is good.

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Last week, I asked you all: “Where will Bucky Irving finish next year? (PPR)”

42.2% of you said “RB 13-18”

Best subscriber comments:

  • RB 19-24: “Man, shoulder injuries scare the hell outta me! RBs get hit on the shoulders literally every play.”

  • RB 19-24: “I was surprised by his rookie year success. Maybe Tampa Bay was too. Guys come back from injury all the time, but Kenneth Gainwell was a pretty big get. It seems like the Buccs had this committee in mind regardless of Bucky’s health.”

  • RB 25-30: “Dude just seems like a walking red flag. I want zero shares of this guy.”

  • RB 25-30: “Lost Liam Coen, not built for full workload, Gainwell and Tucker combine to be the best at both things. We’ve seen backs like this spike from a perfect storm and never regain that form.”

  • RB 25-30: “Kenny G and Sean the Truth are more than barnacles on the Bucky whale. I think the coaching philosophy appreciates a Cerberus approach. A 3 headed monster with Bucky between the 20s, Tucker in goal to go, and Gainwell as 3rd down and change of pace. Always root for healthy players, and that suggests all 3 will be used. Expect 50-30-20. ”

Our take: I voted RB25-30. Bucky might have the highest volume role between the 20s, but those touches have the lowest value. This role limits his catch and TD potential and thus, most of his upside. The injury problems don’t help either. I’d test the waters on selling if I had him. This poll tells me there are still plenty of people who would buy at higher prices.

Here’s his last 30-day sentiment distribution for additional context (a lot of negativites):

Alright, now let’s get to some news you might’ve missed this week.

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  • The offensive line is expected to be a major strength following the return of starting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, a critical upgrade after Herbert faced a league-high pressure rate in 2025.

  • Analysts view Herbert as a high-end dynasty BUY and MVP dark horse, citing his elite arm talent and the potential for increased efficiency in a scheme that emphasizes quick-game passing and motion.

  • His rushing usage, which reached a career-high 83 attempts and nearly 500 yards last season, provides a valuable fantasy floor that managers expect to persist under the new coaching staff.

  • Our take: I’m really excited to see what Herbert can do with a healthy o-line and Mike McDaniel at OC. Feel like this could be his best year yet. All the talk about him by the rest of the industry has skewed heavily positive.

  • Despite a noticeable decline in raw speed and explosiveness, he has successfully compensated by improving his vision and ability to gain hidden yardage, which proved vital to his team's offensive efficiency last season.

  • He is firmly entrenched as the team's primary early-down starter, with projections anticipating a high-volume role that could reach 15 carries per game when healthy.

  • His fantasy value remains heavily tied to his rushing efficiency (evidenced by a 5.0 yards-per-carry average in 2025) but is capped by minimal involvement in the passing game and a three-way committee approach with RJ Harvey and Jonah Coleman.

  • Our take: I’ve had Dobbins for a few years and I’m worried the door could close pretty quickly. The minimal involvement in the passing game already limits his weekly upside, and if the rushing efficiency starts to go, he could fall fast. I don’t think I’d be able to get much for him on the trade market, so I’ll probably just end up holding until the wheels fall off.

  • His efficiency as a runner is well-documented, particularly in zone-blocking schemes where he ranked 7th in yards per carry last season; he also demonstrated high-end metrics in explosive run rate and yards after contact.

  • The team's shift to an under-center offensive scheme under OC David Blough is expected to benefit his downhill running style, with data showing significantly higher efficiency in under-center formations compared to shotgun.

  • The coaching staff is looking for him to elevate his performance in pass protection. His fantasy value is currently capped by a lack of third-down usage, as he recorded zero targets and only two route runs on late downs last season.

  • Our take: The lack of pass game involvement is a big blow for his fantasy value. With Rachaad White now in town, I don’t imagine it’ll be easy for him to earn a meaningful amount of work in that area. He’s a fade for me because the upside feels capped.

  • He offers immediate top-15 fantasy back upside if Bucky Irving misses time due to durability concerns, making him a high-value target in deeper formats.

  • Head coach Todd Bowles has officially designated him as the '1B' back in the Tampa Bay rotation, confirming he will maintain a significant role alongside Irving.

  • While some analysts project him as a high-upside PPR asset, others caution that his role in a potential three-man committee could limit his weekly floor and overall consistency.

  • Our take: You saw Irving’s sentiment distribution at the top of this email. Kenny’s is pretty much the exact opposite. Given all the red flags with Bucky, Gainwell offers contingent upside if Bucky were to get injured or underperform. He also offers standalone FLEX value most weeks. That’s my favorite type of player to bet on.

  • Despite early-career criticism, Johnston has demonstrated consistent scoring production with eight touchdowns in each of the last two seasons. He is currently viewed as a primary starter in two-receiver sets, providing a more secure snap floor than his current market perception suggests.

  • Johnston reports a renewed sense of calm and confidence following the team's decision to pick up his fifth-year option, which he views as significant validation of his role. This stability positions him for a larger role in the offense this season.

  • He is expected to see a significant role change this season, moving away from the 'X' receiver position he was forced into as a rookie. With a new offensive scheme emphasizing his natural ability to run choice routes and create space, he is projected to have a career-best season.

  • Our take: I’ll share my thoughts in next week’s poll review.

Which WR do you value the highest in dynasty (PPR)?

(Vote to see live results)

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That’s all for tonight!

See ya pizza,

Joe

P.S. In case you missed it, catch up on our most recent newsletters below:

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