Beast of Burden

Featuring Luther Burden, RJ Harvey, and more.

July 01, 2026

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Tonight, we’re checking in on some polarizing players who have shown flashes of upside in the past, but still have questions coming into this season.

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Last week, I asked you all: “Where will Saquon finish next season (PPR)?”

62% of you said “RB 7-12”

Best subscriber comments:

  • RB 7-12: “Eagles still have holes in OLine - new Offensive Coordinator - no AJ. Lots of carries in the last 3 years. He will have a good year and I see him at around number 8 or 9. Solid back - 1300 rushing yards / 400 receiving yards / 10 TDs - excellent numbers.”

  • RB 13-18: “He is not the dominate RB he showed his first year in Philly. If you watched his documentary you could tell it was a vendetta against the giants for in his mind screwing him over. He is still better than most but the drive just doesn't seem to be there.”

  • RB 19-24: “Even Walter Payton eventually slowed down some.”

Our take: I only had room to share a few bullets on Saquon last week, but here are a few more takes that jumped out to me:

  • Ranked 7th in expected fantasy points per contest last year despite an RB15 finish, and converted just 1 of 11 goal-line carries into a touchdown (heavy positive regression candidate).

  • Multiple sources are talking about how they expect the Eagles to run him into the ground. Fantasy Points said they project Saquon to lead the league in carries.

I voted for him to finish RB 7-12, but I think he has a legitimate shot to enter that top-6 category. All the positive signs outweigh the age/durability concerns in my mind.

Alright, now let’s get to some news you might’ve missed this week.

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  • He is projected to operate as the team's primary bell-cow back, though analysts expect the coaching staff to manage his workload to maintain his health, potentially utilizing a committee for passing-down and goal-line situations.

  • Coaching staff reports from minicamp indicate a focus on developing his pass-protection and receiving skills, with early observations highlighting his agility and proficiency in screen and swing pass drills.

  • Analysts are divided on his dynasty valuation, with some viewing him as a high-end RB1/RB2 buy in a potent offense, while others recommend selling due to his age, injury risk, and the team's historical tendency to rotate running backs.

  • Our take: I understand both sides. If I’m contending, I’m probably holding and chasing the RB1 upside. If I’m a fringe playoff team, I’m probably cashing out and selling high.

  • Speculation regarding a potential trade persists due to the team's aggressive roster-building philosophy and his upcoming contract status, though analysts note that moving him before he becomes expensive remains unlikely.

  • His route depth has trended deeper each season, which correlates with fewer spike weeks and lower overall fantasy usability. The team's personnel changes, including the loss of a deep-threat receiver and the addition of a short-intermediate option, suggest he will remain locked into a downfield role that lacks consistency.

  • Despite a 2025 season marred by an increased drop rate and off-field issues, he remains a buy-low candidate in dynasty formats due to his age (24) and proven ability to produce when given primary target opportunities.

  • Our take: The market is probably super low on him which makes him a hold or a buy low by default. But, I’m not too encouraged about his long-term outlook. He feels stuck in that boom/bust WR3/WR4 range.

  • His rushing efficiency remains a significant concern, as he struggled with a 3.3 yards-per-carry average and poor contact balance last season despite playing behind a high-performing offensive line.

  • He underwent shoulder surgery following a labral injury sustained during the AFC Conference Championship, with a projected return to full activity by mid-July. Historical research indicates a 94% return-to-play rate for athletes following labral shoulder procedures, suggesting minimal long-term impact on his performance.

  • The Denver backfield is viewed as a crowded three-man committee, with the return of J.K. Dobbins and the addition of rookie Jonah Coleman creating significant competition that limits Harvey's path to consistent touch volume.

  • Our take: I didn’t realize until writing this week’s newsletter, but RJ Harvey transitioned from QB to RB early in his college career. So maybe there’s a chance he continues developing as a more efficient runner? I’m mostly out on him, but I don’t think all hope is lost.

  • His fantasy outlook depends on C.J. Stroud's performance, which is expected to improve with a bolstered offensive line, potentially allowing Stroud to support multiple fantasy-relevant receivers.

  • Higgins saw a significant usage increase during his rookie season, rising from 29 snaps per game in his first five appearances to 42 snaps per game over his final five, establishing a positive trend for his sophomore year.

  • He is a high-upside target who demonstrated WR3-level production in a limited role during the second half of his rookie season. He ranked 24th in target per route run rate among outside receivers during that stretch, suggesting he is ready for a larger workload.

  • Our take: Higgins has a nice chance this season to settle into a solid WR3. Seems like he has the talent and opportunity to do it. I’m not too worried about Tank Dell. And I expect the HOU offense to be a little better this year with an improved line and Montgomery.

  • While analysts are bullish on his talent and scheme fit under Ben Johnson, his fantasy outlook is complicated by a crowded target environment featuring Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland, leading to uncertainty regarding target distribution.

  • Burden is a polarizing dynasty asset; while some managers view him as a top-12 talent with elite upside, others caution that his current ADP reflects a best-case scenario that may not materialize given his limited route tree and reliance on manufactured touches.

  • His reliance on short-area volume creates significant regression risk if his role shifts to deeper routes, as Caleb Williams has historically struggled to maintain high catchable target rates on downfield throws.

  • Our take: Will share my thoughts in next week’s poll breakdown. Vote below 👇️ 

Where should Luther Burden be ranked as a dynast WR (PPR)?

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That’s all for tonight!

See ya pizza,

Joe

P.S. In case you missed it, catch up on our most recent newsletters below:

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